Digital travel credentials to top 1.2B users by 2035, passports remain until 2040

Digital travel credentials (DTC) are set for explosive growth over the next decade, with global adoption projected to exceed 1.2 billion passengers by 2035, according to new research from Juniper Research.

The figure marks a jump from 105.4 million in 2027, representing growth of more than 1,000 percent. “The technical components of biometric travel are ready, and governments are increasingly recognizing the value of interoperable digital identity frameworks,” notes report author Shane O’Sullivan.

“While reciprocal trust between sovereign nations remains complex, growing collaboration around international standards and bilateral agreements will enable digital travel credentials to scale globally.”

Juniper attributes the surge to rising demand for smoother border processing. Travelers are increasingly frustrated with manual checks and new systems such as Europe’s Entry/Exit System (EES). Governments are advancing on interoperable digital identity standards and expanding national digital ID programs, which prepares the ground for wider DTC deployment.

Early initiatives are demonstrating that passport‑free travel can work in practice. The EU’s Aptitude consortium and Singapore’s biometric clearance program show how countries are establishing legal and technical foundations to share data securely and reduce physical queues.

However, Juniper warns that progress will be gradual. Fully digital, passport‑free travel is unlikely before 2040, meaning physical passports will remain a fallback for years. But the technical blueprint is mostly complete with successful biometric‑matching pilots, such as IATA’s which drew positive conclusions from a series of digital identity trails across Europe and Asia-Pacific.

The remaining challenge comes from synchronizing border systems across sovereign states quickly enough to meet passenger expectations. “The future of global mobility depends not on software, but how quickly nations can co‑author trust frameworks,” the report says.

Biometrics and the leading players

Juniper highlights biometrics as a critical layer in the presentation of digital credentials, proving the credentials belong to the legitimate owner.

The promise of remote onboarding, and travelers generating DTCs from the convenience of their home, “relies entirely on highly advanced liveness detection, highly accurate face matching algorithms, and robust selfie-to-ID comparison techniques,” the report says.

The EU’s EES and the European Travel Information and Authorisation System (ETIAS), which have seen turbulent experiences so far, are brought up in Juniper’s report — with a concise summary of a major factor of where things have gone wrong.

“Recognising that manual registration of these biometrics at physical borders will cause catastrophic delays,” it says. Because in reality, what should be digitized and seamless has caused huge delays at some airports in the EU, with EU officials admitting 20 “difficult spots.”

The European Council is establishing a legal foundation for the time-saving Travel to Europe biometric pre-registration app, which is built with technology from Inverid (since acquired by Signicat) and iProov a year ago. The app is built specifically to allow travelers to create DTCs, but has so far only been implemented at Sweden’s Arlanda Airport and Portugal’s Lisbon Airport.

Juniper’s research report includes independent assessment of 13 “leading digital travel credential vendors,” evaluating their capability and capacity to compete. The vendors include Amadeus IT Group, G+D Veridos, NEC, Neoke, Signicat, SITA, Indicio and Thales.

An extract from the report, Digital Travel Credential Market 2026‑2035, is available as a free download here.

Article Topics

airport biometrics  |  biometrics  |  digital ID  |  digital travel  |  digital travel credentials  |  Juniper Research  |  market report  |  trust framework