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Expect digital ID to balloon in users and revenue by 2026: Juniper Research

Market forecast for $53B by 2026
Expect digital ID to balloon in users and revenue by 2026: Juniper Research

Juniper Research says the number of digital ID users and revenue for vendors will grow significantly from 2021 and 2022 to 2026, which accentuates the growing importance of digital identity in sectors like government services.

The most recent report from the British market research firm, titled ‘Digital Identity: Key Opportunities, Regulatory Landscape & Market Forecasts 2022-2026,’ forecasts the number of digital identity document users will expand by over 50 percent from 4.2 billion in 2022 to 6.5 billion in 2026. Juniper says the growth has accelerated due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The research also predicts that digital ID cards will grow globally from 2.5 billion in 2022 to 4 billion users in 2026, a 60 percent increase.

Ease and equality of access are the critical factors for digital identity systems to interact with government services, Juniper finds.

Juniper says the market research shows that while commercial fraud is common, verification for government services cannot be ignored. Governments that issue digital ID documents must work alongside verification vendors who offer a variety of different verification scenarios across use cases, or those documents can be used to commit fraud, it concludes.

Similarly, a whitepaper from Juniper titled ‘Digital Identity – Realizing Critical Opportunities,’ estimates that revenue for digital ID vendors will double globally from 2021 to 2026; from $26 billion to $53 billion. Identity verification technologies and services are also expected to generate more business, going from $9 billion in 2021 to $16 billion in 2026.

A recent forecast from Goode Intelligence pegged the identity verification market at just over $17 billion in 2026.

In an analysis of the digital identity landscape, Juniper notes the growing influence of biometric identifiers and multimodal identification. The digital ID revenue includes third-party and civic identity apps, centralized identity schemes, and digital identity verification. Like ‘Digital Identity: Key Opportunities, Regulatory Landscape & Market Forecasts 2022-2026,’ Juniper says the COVID-19 pandemic will increase demand for digital identity onboarding frameworks. It also says that increasing fraud attempts will raise the need for verification capabilities as well.

Juniper also predicts verified digital identity will move from established infrastructure to utilizing and verifying identity in practical applications via increasing data partnerships between vendors to provide comprehensive, data-diverse identity systems.

The firm specifically names the U.S. as a laggard in digital identity, with only 7 percent of global digital identity revenue by 2026. Juniper cites its lack of a national identity plan and strategies as limiting factors. But Juniper argues there is potential for decentralized identity to succeed and vendors should focus around private initiatives in the U.S. market.

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