Annual national ID issuances forecasted to grow by 50M through 2023

The number of National IDs shipped will grow from 440 million units in 2018 to 490 million units in 2023, as large-scale biometric projects launch or progress in Ghana, Zambia, Nigeria, Kenya, and Italy, according to a new report from ABI Research.

The “Global Analysis of the Government ID Arena” report shows smart and legacy credentials growing from 9.8 billion in 2018 to 11.5 billion in 2023, while smart card shipments are forecast to grow from 618.8 million last year to 732.7 million five years later. The gap between legacy and smart credentials is also decreasing, as 37 percent of those in circulation were smart format credentials in 2018, but 44 percent are expected to be in 2023.

The government ID market is being influenced by significant regional and innovation trends as international travel increases and governments focus on border control and citizens’ data security. In addition to large national registration efforts, eID programs such as Ny Number cards in Japan, as well as programs in Turkey and the Philippines.

“When it comes to regions, identifiable trends are emerging as it pertains to the objectives that credential programs are looking to achieve,” comments Sam Gazeley, Digital Security Analyst at ABI Research. “In African nations, there is a clear focus on providing national IDs that have payment functionality, bringing financial inclusion to a largely underbanked population, and increasing commerce among countries within the IGAD trading bloc. In Latin America, there is a trend toward issuing smart driver’s license programs, spearheaded by Brazil, an innovative project, encompassing a smart physical credential alongside a mobile driver’s license companion. In North America, developments in Real ID in the wake of identity legislation has prompted a drive for scrupulous citizen-issued credentials.”

The national ID and financial inclusion efforts of African nations will be explored at ID4Africa next week, which has a conference theme of “Identity Ecosystems for Service Delivery.”

Gemalto, IDEMIA, G+D (including Veridos) and Bundesdruckerei had a combined 63.7 percent share in the smart card market in the first half of 2018, and are poised to take advantage of new issuances, according to ABI.

“Vendors that are already well positioned and established within the Government ID market will be able to take advantage of innovative technological advances in citizen credentials to drive higher revenues and decrease production costs. The use of polycarbonate as a material can provide higher physical security features, and mobile and derived companions to physical documents provide a convenient solution to citizens while improving citizen-to-government relationships,” concludes Gazeley.

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